What is the cost of not protecting children?

Child protection is a critical component of our work in communities, and is foundationally built into our programs. All girls and boys deserve to grow in secure and nurturing environments, free from abuse, neglect, exploitation and violence.

We know this work is vital—but as we assess the value of our impact, evaluating the costs and benefits of the specific child protection interventions we use is not straightforward. There is limited research available on the long-term effects these interventions have on reducing violence against children and creating environments where they can succeed. Research on the negative outcomes of child harm is also sparse, making it very difficult to measure the economic value of World Vision’s child protection programs.

As a solution to this challenge, we can frame the question differently. Rather than asking, What are the costs and benefits of our child protection interventions? we can ask, What are the implications of not investing in the protection of the world’s girls and boys?¹

So far, this approach has confirmed: the implications are vast.

Our analysis to date shows that the current cost to society of failing to protect children is US$8.9 trillion every year. And we strongly believe this figure is an underestimation, as it does not yet account for the consequences of important factors like early marriage, mental health and female genital mutilation (FGM), among others.

The costs of not protecting children are believed to be extensive but to date, are not well understood. While research has been conducted on many specific aspects of violence against children and child protection, there have been minimal attempts to use these findings to inform more comprehensive estimates of the total cost of not protecting girls and boys across a broader set of categories.

In partnership with an external analytics firm, World Vision is now developing a comprehensive methodology to estimate the current cost to the global economy of not protecting children. rom this foundational work, we will build a set of tools that will inform future analytical studies—and ultimately help us evaluate, design and prioritize effective child protection interventions.

The most relevant current index estimating the costs of child protection was published by Child Fund and ODI in 2014 (referred to hereafter as CFODI). This index is often cited in current reports. It accounts for three categories of violence:

• physical, emotional, and sexual abuse
• child labour
• children associated with armed forces or groups

All three categories of violence are connected to losses in education—such as higher school dropout rates—while children associated with armed forces or groups (CAAFG) is also associated with premature death, which is valued as lost productivity to society.

Our work in updating the CFODI estimates revealed gaps in that earlier work, which should now be addressed through the addition of newer methodologies.

In updating the index, it was found that the real cost of not protecting children has increased by 22 per cent since 2014, while the global population has increased by only 9 per cent in the same time period. At first glance, this looks like the result of increased child labour or abuse; however, this rise has actually been driven by countries becoming richer, with increases in real GDP both globally and by region. Simply put, the cost of not protecting children has gone up because children in many countries have greater economic potential than they did in 2014—so the financial costs resulting from their harm is felt more acutely.

In both the original and updated estimates, the distribution of costs across the three forms of violence remains consistent—predominantly driven by the cost of physical, emotional and sexual abuse, which comprises 98 per cent of the total cost of not protecting children. The remainder is mostly child labour (2 per cent), while CAAFG is negligible relative to the total cost. This is largely because, according to CFODI, fewer children are affected by recruitment into armed forces when compared to the other two forms of violence.

Since 2014, the definitions and methodologies used in child protection work have evolved. For example, World Vision often uses the 2020 Alliance for Child Protection in Humanitarian Action (ACPHA) guidelines when designing child protection projects in humanitarian contexts; this guidance identifies seven categories of violence against children, compared to the three included in the CFODI index. These are:

• Dangers and injuries
• Physical and emotional maltreatment
• Sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV)
• Mental health and psychosocial distress
• CAAFG
• Child labour
• Unaccompanied and separated children

Updates to the CFODI index are needed in two respects: First, additional ACPHA categories should be considered to form a more complete estimate of the costs of not protecting children. Second, the methodology used for the categories that CFODI valued would benefit from being updated and refined.

This table shows a brief overview of the gaps we have identified for each category.

We will use the 2020 ACPHA guidelines to frame new research and provide an improved model of the cost of not protecting children. Because both resources and available research are limited, we will begin this work strategically. Over the next year, we plan to run an analysis using secondary data and World Vision data to identify which ACPHA category we should focus on first in improving the index. Once this is complete, we will present an updated methodology and estimation to the public.²

We see this as essential work.

Our current estimate of the economic cost of not protecting children is US$8.9 trillion—a figure that we believe is much lower than the reality. Our analysis has revealed gaps that should be addressed, but more investigation is needed.

Efforts to shield girls and boys from harm—equipping them with knowledge of their own rights, fostering safe home environments, strengthening the protective systems around them—are unequivocally important to World Vision’s mission to help bring life in all its fullness to the most vulnerable girls and boys; we know that violence against even a single child can reverberate for generations.

By gaining a better understanding of both the costs surrounding child protection and the value of World Vision’s programs in this area, we hope to improve the quality of our work so that ultimately, fewer girls and boys experience the hurt, loss and limitation that violence against them brings.

In Mozambique’s Nampula province, the Every Girl Can program is working to see adolescent girls living free from sexual and gender-based violence and discrimination. Local child protection advocates like Samuel can be powerful influencers.

“I realized that early marriage is a form of gender-based violence,” says Samuel, 24, who experienced a major life change after learning about gender-based violence and abuse and the negative consequences of child marriage. He now meets with families who are considering a premature union in the hopes of changing their minds. “My dream for every girl is to have a chance to live a life free of violence and complete her studies.”

Samuel’s attitude within his own family has also changed. He’s become a leader for his peers and younger boys—including his younger brothers who depend on him.

“The training sessions taught me how to behave like a real man, avoiding toxic masculinity [that leads to acting] violently toward others,” he says.

¹ This topic has also been explored in “The violence prevention dividend – Why preventing violence against children makes economic sense,” a report created by a coalition of child-focused agencies, with WVI as a contributor.

² Both the CFODI and our proposed updated methodology seek to estimate the economic cost of not protecting children. No attempt has been or will be made to assign economic value to human rights, dignity or equity. These inherent social values motivate us to reduce violence against children and are undeniably valuable to well-being and quality of life—but there is no agreed-upon methodology or process to assign appropriate value to these elements.